Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Financial forecasters often cite a return of 8% to 10% as a likely outcome for stock market performance in the year ahead. As reasonable as this may sound, the S&P 500 Index, over the past 89 years, has never delivered a total return between 8% and 10% in any single calendar year. Not once. Rather, in most instances, returns have been substantially higher or lower. For example, starting in 1926, there have been 28 years with a gain or a loss in excess of 25%. We are constantly reminded and cautioned by “experts” that the market is extremely over-valued and that a crash is imminent. When stock prices fell sharply last year in January and the S&P 500 was down over 3.5%, the proverbial sky was falling. Game over. Run for the hills. Except that the S&P ended up with a return of near 14% for the year. Those who stuck it out certainly didn’t mind. 2015 has already seen its share of market madness. Forecasters have already staked their claim on how the year will turn out …some good, some bad, some flat, some apocalyptic. More will be wrong than right. Most, in fact, will be wrong. Do yourself a favor…stick to your plan, ignore the noise, and stay diversified. It’s like déjà vu all over again! Thanks Yogi.
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